Pre-Election Survey
The upcoming U.S. election could shape a new future for digital assets. We tapped into our network to see how the election results might shape regulation, market sentiment, and blockchain innovation. Here’s what leaders in our space are keeping their eyes on—and the shifts they think could lie ahead.
Who do you think will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Whether it’s blockchain-natives or non-natives, the results were the same. The majority of our community thinks that Donald Trump will become the 47th U.S. President.
When we looked at the different organization types, we saw that while allocators and companies are on the fence, the most blockchain native crowds (protocols and fund managers) leaned in even more on a Republican outcome.
Which party is most likely to win control of the U.S. Congress?
While most of our community predicts a Trump win, they're less convinced that there will be a Republican sweep. Sounds like our industry is in need of bipartisan support regardless of the presidential election results.
Which election-related changes could have the greatest influence on the digital assets space?
A new SEC Chair appointment could be the positive election-related catalyst we’re all hoping for - makes sense, Gensler’s becoming a punching bag for the industry. But don’t overlook the potential impact of new legislation or shifts in executive branch policies going forward, either.
Select three areas in blockchain that you think will perform the best in the next year.
While capital allocators and companies remain interested in stablecoins, the more blockchain-native crowd is leaning in on other areas such as DePIN, DeFi, and AI.
What do you think the total digital assets market cap will be one month after the election?
Perhaps the most important outcome of the election is not the result itself, but the positive exposure the industry received by both Republicans and Democrats alike. Our respondents agree, there seems to be some clear tailwinds for us.
What role will the U.S. play in blockchain innovation and adoption over the next 24 months?
No matter where our respondents live, everybody believes the U.S. will not own Web3 like they do Web2. That ship has sailed.
Regulatory changes or technical advancements - what’s going to drive the next bull run?
The majority of our respondents believe that no amount of innovation is going to overcome the regulatory hurdles that continue to plague our industry.
Which investors will have the most influence over digital asset prices over the next 24 months?
The last cycle was driven by retail, but our respondents think that institutions will increasingly drive digital asset prices.
How meaningfully do you see Web3 projects competing with Web2 companies in the next 24 months?
Most of our respondents don’t believe Web3 projects will have a significant impact on Web2 companies in the next two years.
Our chairman, Adam Winnick, differs from this crowd. He thinks key technologies like zkTLS and Shared Security will make blockchains more competitive with Web2 companies sooner than we think. See his keynote from our Medici SG 24 conference.
Which will outperform in 2025: Venture or Liquid?
The blockchain industry has experienced a superbloom thanks to strong venture capital investment over the last five years. The seeds have now started sprouting and protocols are launching tokens rapidly. Who will absorb the supply?
There’s only $10 billion of capital to support the $80 billion in venture capital dollars from the last cycle and it seems that most of our respondents recognize the opportunity here.
Which areas do you see Web3 projects meaningfully competing with traditional businesses over the next 24 months?
In 2021, gaming and entertainment were all the rage and it seems like these areas are still of active interest.
What’s most exciting to our respondents are the consumer financial applications of blockchain. This is in line with recent reports from a16z highlighting stablecoin activity growth and product-market fit, as well as Stripe’s recent acquisition of Bridge, a stablecoin infrastructure company.
Lots of projects launch their tokens with high prices and low floats - when do you think that will change?
Looks like almost half of the crowd thinks that we’ll address the issue within three years, 18% think its solved via regulation, and the rest either don’t know or don’t care.
What would you do to improve the market structure for public tokens to make it a more investible asset class?
It’s great to hear from our community and these are all strong points. Another point worth considering: improving custodial solutions for the long tail of digital asset holdings.
